ABSTRACT
Objective: To determine the mortality rate and its predictors in patients with a presumptive diagnosis of tuberculous pericarditis in sub-Saharan Africa. Design: Between 1 March 2004 and 31 October 2004; we enrolled 185 consecutive patients with presumed tuberculous pericarditis from 15 referral hospitals in Cameroon; Nigeria; and South Africa; and observed them during the 6-month course of antituberculosis treatment for the major outcome of mortality. This was an observational study; with the diagnosis and management of each patient left at the discretion of the attending physician. Using Cox regression; we have assessed the effect of clinical and therapeutic characteristics (recorded at baseline) on mortality during follow-up. Results: We obtained the vital status of 174 (94) patients (median age 33; range 14-87 years). The overall mortality rate was 26. Mortality was higher in patients who had clinical features of HIV infection than in those who did not (40versus 17; P=0.001). Independent predictors of death during follow-up were: (1) a proven non-tuberculosis final diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] 5.35; 95confidence interval 1.76 to 16.25); (2) the presence of clinical signs of HIV infection (HR 2.28; 1.14-4.56); (3) co-existent pulmonary tuberculosis (HR 2.33; 1.20-4.54); and (4) older age (HR 1.02; 1.01-1.05). There was also a trend towards an increase in death rate in patients with haemodynamic instability (HR 1.80; 0.90-3.58) and a decrease in those who underwent pericardiocentesis (HR 0.34; 0.10-1.19). Conclusion : A presumptive diagnosis of tuberculous pericarditis is associated with a high mortality in sub-Saharan Africans. Attention to rapid aetiological diagnosis of pericardial effusion and treatment of concomitant HIV infection may reduce the high mortality associated with the disease